DREAM Act could cost more than previously estimated, according to report

A new report released by California’s bipartisan financial analyst predicts that the state DREAM Act will cost about $25 million more than previously estimated and could decrease the funding available for resident students currently seeking aid.

The state Legislative Analyst’s Office report released Wednesday states that resident students seeking state financial aid could receive less because of the funding that will be allotted to students newly eligible under the act. The report projects the act’s cost to total $65 million annually once fully implemented, higher than the estimated annual cost of $40 million calculated by the state Senate Appropriations Committee earlier this year.

The cost of the act will rise annually until 2015-16, when the cost is then expected to rise significantly slower, according to Judy Heiman, a principal analyst at the office.

The cost of Cal Grants for students newly eligible under the act is also predicted to increase from the $13 million estimated in the committee’s bill analysis to $50 million by 2016-17, according to the report.

The bill analysis introduced on the state Assembly floor before the August vote did not include a rising cost estimate for increasing numbers of students newly eligible under the act, although it did stipulate that rising costs were likely due to increased AB 540 student participation in higher education.

Heiman said the information in the bill analysis only included the first-year implementation costs of the bill, despite the analysis’s indication that the costs are annual and ongoing.

“(The new report) takes into consideration the cumulative costs,” she said. “Each year, you get another crop of high school grads who are eligible for four years of Cal Grants.”

The cost of Cal Grants will increase by about $15 million every year from the act’s implementation in January 2012 until 2016, according to Heiman. To generate the estimate, she said analysts looked at the ratio of renewals to new awards for existing Cal Grants and made an assumption that some of those ratios would be similar for undocumented students pursuing a college education.

If the number of awards to resident students is not affected by students newly eligible under the act, the state will either have to award smaller institutional aid awards to resident students or seek additional funding from sources other than the state, according to the report.

“If you’re gonna keep the same number of awards and add the students who qualify for this new benefit, then everyone is going to have to get a little less,” Heiman said. “You’re just spreading the same pot of money thinner.”Read the full report below:

Damian Ortellado covers higher education.

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  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Gary-Darby/1251057780 Gary Darby

    How is Moonbeam able to give all of this money for illegal aliens, on one hand,  and  fire an astronomical amount of California State law enforcement and correctional officers, on the other?  If that makes sense to anyone it would only be because it benefits them.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_YKSNMOOKV2VNV4QX4ICC3IJ4ZY Lili Q

    A new bill titled the Alta California Mexican Opportunity and Prosperity Act would enable [every Mexican citizen] to live and work in [Alta California under Mexian rule] without facing [federal interference from the US], a story in The Sacramento Bee reported

    California lawmakers propose immediate secesion to the superior culture of Mexico

  • headdesk

    I want to pull my hair out. I can’t even decide whether the politicians are actually this stupid, or if they sincerely believe that we are.

    • A.E

      the latter

  • Anonymous

    Het, California!  Get rid of the illegal aliens!  Save the money.  The illegal aliens are NOT worth it.

  • Myhandle2007

    One estimate we can rely on – no DREAM Act would cost zero dollars

  • guest

    How dare Gov. Brown try and raise my taxes and complain about how broke this state is and then come up with this crap!  I say we RECALL the old dirt bag!

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_X63T7LYRFOZSBPKNI5WTQWRVBM maddogim

    Imagine California 10 years from now with the new state redistricting in force, a Democratic Progressive majority in both state houses and the governorship… say good bye to any type of restraint on tax increases and Prop 13 destroyed.   Making my plans for a move… infestation of progressive smegma crud is out of control.   California is all but lost.

  • Guest

    The government and the UC administration lie to us, and the leftwing sycophants in the media cover it up.

    Shocking.

     

  • Yee_2laine

    Where is the full report? 

  • Sophie

    There is a grassroots effort to put “The Dream Act” on the 2012 ballot so that voters can overturn this legislation.   Visit http://www.stopAB131.com to get a petition mailed to you — ask your friends and family to sign, too.    Join with other volunteers via Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/StopTheDreamAct

    Let voters decide if we can afford The Dream Act.   

  • Anonymous

    I doubt the $65 million max is high enough.  Once word gets around that there’s free Cal Grant money, illegal aliens will be signing up in droves to get it.  This free money is available for older CSU students too.  An illegal alien merely needs to keep working whatever illegal job he has, take some evening CSU classes instead of playing on his XBox, and collect free money.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_WRACM77JT2RXUR3LMGDPPUGUYY Tony M

    [A new report released by California’s bipartisan financial analyst
    predicts that the state DREAM Act will cost about $25 million more than
    previously estimated and could decrease the funding available for
    resident students currently seeking aid.]

    In other words, after a series of flatulent puff pieces in the Daily Cal insistent that the DREAM Act wasn’t going to hurt any native residents, and repeated accusations that anyone who opposed this was merely being “racist”, “bigoted”, or “anti-immigrant”, lo and behold, the panel comes to the shocking conclusion that this WILL cost more money, and WILL decrease funding for citizens and legal residents. Once again, we have clear proof that liberals and progressives are completely removed from social AND economic reality…

  • consrcunts

    Oh gosh, what a surprise.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_WRACM77JT2RXUR3LMGDPPUGUYY Tony M

    And people wonder why this state is broke…

  • Guest

    Let’s continue to back it.  It may help, I don’t know, 150 students on a campus of 35,000.

    I am glad Birgeneau has spent so much personal time going on a crusade for this.  Much better than hitting the fundraising trail, I guess.

    • Sophie_mail

      But our state doesn’t have the money!   California’s budget shortfall is so huge that public education is facing a $1.4 billion cut in the middle of this school year.  The state is considering allowing K-12 schools to teach only 168 days a year (the school year was a minimum of 180 days before the recession hit). 

      Our first priority needs to be properly funding our public schools — that will benefit ALL of the students in our state.

    • Anonymous

      I suspect the real abuse will take place in CSU campuses, where admission is easier than UC.   Grant recipients don’t have to be full time students, so illegal aliens can collect the grants, keep working by day, make token progress in evening classes, and continue to accept the grant money year after year.  Community colleges will be unable to cope with the huge influx of illegal aliens taking vocational classes now that nonresident fees no longer apply.

  • Stan De San Diego

    Anyone surprised other than the usual “progressives”, who don’t have a clue about basic economics anyway?

    • Guest

      Cost estimates are problematic  since there is no record of  the actual number of illegals in high schools in California. We also do not know the growth effect that a free higher education will have as an incentive  to attract even more illegals to California, especially from Asia.  
      Using estimates of around 400,000 public high school graduates per year.
      http://www.dof.ca.gov/research/demographic/reports/projections/k-12/documents/2011Series_K-12_Reports_Internet.xls
      http://www.dof.ca.gov/research/demographic/reports/projections/k-12/view.php
      Very conservatively estimate  that  10% are illegals. That gives 40,000 illegal high school graduates per year. Under the new UC Admissions Plan that is being implemented for the high school class of 2012, the top 9% of students by class rank in any California high school are now eligible for admission to UC  under the local path regardless of  standardized test scores or the competitive level of the high school.
      http://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/admissions/freshman/california-residents/local-path/index.html
      When a student applied on line  this November  and was in the projected top 9% at his high school, a screen popped  up stating: “Congratulations!  You are Guaranteed Admission to the University of California!”, even though there was not supposed to be a guarantee of admission under the local path.  UC  is  guaranteeing admission to at least one UC Campus under the Local Path and under the Statewide Path only offering  admission to another UC  when  not admitted to the campus of choice,   if there is room available  after those admitted under the Local Path are guaranteed admission to at least one UC.  Of course there is not going to be room available with Blue and Gold offering a free education to every state resident, including  illegals,  eligible for admission under the Local Path. UC has now placed admission of less qualified applicants  under the Local Path precedent to admission  of more qualified applicants under the Statewide Path.
      http://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/admissions/freshman/california-residents/admissions-index/index.html
      Returning to the estimate of  the cost of the Dream Act, 9% of 40,000 illegal graduates is 3,600. Assuming  all are eligible for Cal Grants, Blue and Gold or whatever other state and UC subsidies, for tuition alone that amounts to 3,600 x $12,000 = $43,200,000. But this is only part of the cost since the state subsidizes all state resident student’s tuition to a certain degree which is equivalent to some amount between the state resident rate and the out of state/international rate of tuition. Let’s assume the state subsidy amounts to $10,000 per year. Then we have $43,200,00 + $36,000,000 for a total cost of $79,200,000 for one year’s high school graduating class of UC eligible illegals. The $36,000,000 of state subsidies that are given to students paying the state resident tuition rate are  not going to be enjoyed by state resident citizen students who are going to be  displaced by illegals since UC enrollment is not going to expand to accommodate a growth in the illegal student population. State resident students will have to be replaced by illegals for the illegal student population to grow.
      Multiply  the total cost  per graduating class by four since four year’s graduating  make up UC undergraduate student enrollment and the total costs is $79,200,000 x 4 = $316,800,000 and this is just for UC.  Far more illegals are eligible for admission to the  CSU system  which has a far larger enrollment. The costs are going to be somewhere between five hundred million and one billion per year and the most significant  cost will not be the financial cost  but the displacement of  more academically qualified students under the Statewide Path due to  UC    guaranteeing the top 9% in every school admission to a UC under the Local Path regardless of  standardized test scores or the  competitive level of the high school.

      • Anonymous

        Terrific analysis!  Don’t forget that community college fees for nonresidents will be waived for eligible illegal aliens (eligible illegals?!!) and middle-aged illegal aliens who have already graduated high school decades ago can now take college classes and receive free Cal Grants while they keep their day jobs.  The total cost will be much higher than we can imagine.

  • guest2

    I believe the intial estimated cost of AB131 was $14.5 million, then $40 million, and now $65 million!   The CA legislators (esp. Cedillo) seriously misled Gov. Brown and the taxpayers.

    • HaleBruin

         Gov. Brown wasn’t misled.  The Governor and all of the other liberal plutocrats knew exactly  what the  cost would be.  It was their version of a bait and switch tactic. 

      • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_YKSNMOOKV2VNV4QX4ICC3IJ4ZY Lili Q

        Gov Jerry was a Catholic monk. Mexico is 90 percent Catholic. The great majority of illegal aliens from south of the California border come from Mexico. These illegal aliens are his former parishoners. He has a personl stake and overriding interest in bringing as many parishoners to California as possible to promote, encourage and foster the furtherance of his Catholic brethren.

  • Anonymous

    You mean bone head government clowns underestimated a Lib social program. I’m SHOCKED!