As the boat sinks and the water rises, the Cal men’s soccer team is gasping for air.
Nonetheless, it’s still kicking, and for the players and coaches that’s enough reason to believe in a NCAA tournament berth come next week.
The Bears’ two-month long campaign comes to an end on Friday in a derby match against Stanford. The 1:30 p.m. matinee at Edwards Stadium is a must-win for Cal (8-6-3, 3-4-2 in the Pac-12) to even have a prayer for the postseason.
But even if the Bears defeat the Cardinal and finish with a nine-win season, history and numbers are against their odds of a postseason.
Of the 48 teams invited to the tournament last year, only seven had fewer than 10 wins in the regular season. Three of those squads automatically qualified as the champions of their respective conferences, and the other four all had a winning conference record, at the very least.
Cal’s win against its Pac-12 rival will improve its conference record to exactly .500. The Bears — who are neither a 10-win team, a conference champion nor a team with an above-.500 Pac-12 record — will have to rely on uncontrollable luck to even eke into the tournament.
But right now, the squad is solely focused on the things that it can dictate.
“We only have Friday under our control,” Cal coach Kevin Grimes said. “We’re going to focus on Friday and let fate take its course.”
Stanford (8-8-1, 4-4-1) is also looking for a miracle to enter the NCAA tournament. At a slight third in the Pac-12 ahead of Cal, the Cardinal have lost three of six recent matches to first-place UCLA and second-place Washington twice.
Led by first-year head coach Jeremy Gunn, Stanford defines itself on its rough style of play that has brewed some bad blood from the Bears. On Oct. 4 at Laird Q. Cagan Stadium, Cal and the Cardinal piled up 38 fouls and four yellow cards. Thanks to sophomore Zach Bateer’s two header goals, the Cardinal won, 2-0.
“From the first play of the game, they had the center midfielder against me flying in with a tackle,” senior midfielder Tony Salciccia said. “We are looking to get some cards.”
All eyes on the Cal defensive line will be on forward Adam Jahn, who has accounted for 40 percent of the Cardinal’s total goals with 10. In the last six matches, Jahn has recorded five goals and two assists.
But the Bears’ defense has looked in control of its play in recent matches. Last week, the defensive line soaked up 28 UCLA shots for 110 minutes to leave Los Angeles with a crucial 1-1 tie.
“We were inches from winning the (UCLA) game,” Grimes said. “The guys looked razor-sharp this week in practice.”
With just one match remaining, perhaps Cal found its groove too late. Even with a decisive victory on Friday, midnight might have already struck at Edwards Stadium for the Bears.
But Cal is not ready to buy into that growing reality just yet.
“We’re looking to get into the tournament,” Salciccia said. “We’re still alive.”
Seung Y. Lee covers men’s soccer. Contact him at [email protected]
Comment Policy
Comments should remain on topic, concerning the article or blog post to which they are connected. Brevity is encouraged. Posting under a pseudonym is discouraged, but permitted. The Daily Cal encourages readers to voice their opinions respectfully in regard to the readers, writers and contributors of The Daily Californian. Comments are not pre-moderated, but may be removed if deemed to be in violation of this policy. Click here to read the full comment policy.