Sports

“I feel like I just fall in love with my 3-point shot. But I feel like I can score in any number of ways — I just don’t do it. And I don’t know why I don’t do it, it’s just something that I have to develop.”

— Allen Crabbe in 2012

For his first two years at Cal, Allen Crabbe was his own worst enemy.

Crabbe last year talked about leaping over his own mental barrier that kept him from being more aggressive with the ball and driving to the paint. His perfectionism and adoration of his smooth three held him back.

But this year, he changed. He became more assertive with the ball. Instead of settling for the catch-and-shoot 3-pointer, he absorbed contact and drove for more high-percentage shots. His points per game rose from 15.2 to a conference-leading 18.6.

It’s easy to identify Crabbe’s change in his style of play by simply watching Cal basketball games. But statistics help put context to how effective the incumbent Pac-12 Player of the Year’s metamorphosis has been this season.

All the numbers agree that Crabbe isn’t camping out by the 3-point line anymore. Compared to last season, Crabbe’s 3-point attempts this season decreased by around 20 percent (208 to 167), and his 2-point attempts shot up coincidentally by around 20 percent as well (207 to 259).

As his long-distance shots declined in frequency, his shot selection around the rim, whether it be dunks, layups or floaters, skyrocketed — according to hoop-math.com, his percentage of shots this season (20 percent) from around the rim nearly doubled from last year (11 percent).

Crabbe also isn’t driving into the rim recklessly and blindly. He’s been really astute with his high-percentage shot selection — Crabbe makes 70 percent of his shots by the rim.

Once a one-dimensional perimeter shooter, the 6-foot-6 guard developed a potent driving game, making him a more complete guard.

With Crabbe’s frequent drives into the post came an increase in fouls drawn. According to kenpom.com, Crabbe this season drew 4.3 fouls per 40 minutes, a whole foul more than in his past two seasons.

And with more fouls came more free throws. Crabbe’s free throw attempts rose by 30 percent this season. His free throw rate — an indicator of how frequently a player reaches the charity stripe relative to his field goal attempts — increased to 29.5 from 21.4 last season.

Statistically, there should be little doubt in saying Crabbe is more effective with his growing offensive repertoire.

But the statement reaches a quandary in the world of sabermetrics when realizing Crabbe’s effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage — the two most widespread sabermetrics to identify a player’s shooting effectiveness —  remain almost identical to the past two years.

How is that possible?

Crabbe’s involvement in the Cal offense in terms of importance and volume ballooned this season. Last year, Crabbe was an auxiliary attacking option to seniors Jorge Gutierrez and Harper Kamp. This year, he has been Plan A in all of Cal’s offensive plays with little support.

Despite going up against the opposing team’s best defender every single game, Crabbe took more shots than in previous seasons. It’s actually impressive that Crabbe’s percentages have not dipped below his underclassman years’ this season.

But that’s when the naked eye enters to be the final judge. The naked eye confirms what the numbers imply: Crabbe’s more aggressive style of play has been more effective.

This can only bode well for Mike Montgomery, Cal fans and, of course, Crabbe’s own NBA stock.