PAC-10 Bowl Projections
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Category: Sports > Fall > Football
USC
The vaunted USC defense gets two more chances to prove it's one of the best units of all time
Things should get interesting on Jan. 1, when No. 5 USC takes on No. 8 Penn State in an old-school dream matchup. Both sides have legitimate claims at playing for a BCS title, with only one loss a side, the Trojan blemish coming at Oregon State, while the Nittany Lions faltered at Iowa.
USC, though, looks to be the clear favorite. Playing in their fourth consecutive Rose Bowl, the Trojans have disposed of two straight Big Ten opponents-Michigan in 2007, Illinois in 2008.
Now, Penn State coach Joe Paterno gets his shot. In a matchup of two top-10 squads, the difference could well be the USC defense and the ability of both Carroll and Paterno to adjust.
If that's the case, one has to like the Trojans' chances at taking a third straight Rose Bowl win and landing in the top four national rankings for the seventh straight season.
Oregon State
Needing a win at home against their rival to fulfill the hopes of their California-dreaming faithful, the Beavers fell flat against Oregon and will have to wait another season for a shot at the Rose Bowl.
Instead, Oregon State will spend New Year's Eve in El Paso, Texas, playing in the Brut Sun Bowl as the third-place team out of the Pac-10.
Tradtionally, that Pac-10 team will play Notre Dame or a team out of either the Big XII or Big East. With the Fighting Irish falling short of bowl eligibility and five ranked Big XII teams scrapping for more prestigious bowl berths, Big East runner-up No. 23 Pittsburgh is the likely opponent for OSU, provided that the Panthers take care of business this weekend against Connecticut.
Jacquizz Rodgers, who missed the Civil War due to torn ligaments in his shoulder, should be back by Dec. 31 to set up a tailback battle with Pitt's LeSean McCoy, who has 20 touchdowns.
Cal
A week ago, the Bears looked like they might back their way into the Holiday Bowl, hinging on an Oregon State win over Oregon.
But the Ducks and Beavers finished the season with two losses, and Cal can now finish no higher than fourth place in the conference. Unless they completely tank against Washington this weekend, the Bears will wind up just above Arizona.
Typically, No. 4 in the Pac-10 is tied into the Las Vegas Bowl.
But the door is always open for a switch between the Vegas Bowl and the Emerald Bowl-which traditionally welcomes the Pac-10's No. 5-and if that were ever to happen, this looks like the year. The Emerald Bowl has never had a "home" team in its six-year history, and an Arizona-Miami (FL) matchup wouldn't draw anywhere near the attention that the Bears would.
As a result, Cal may well finish its season playing for a home crowd at AT&T Park on Dec. 27.
Oregon
With all the hype surrounding the possibility of Oregon State going to its first Rose Bowl since 1965, a lot of people probably forgot that last weekend's Civil War held some serious implications for Oregon as well.
After crashing Corvallis and running rampant on the Beavers defense for almost 700 yards of total offense and 65 points, the Ducks jumped from fourth place in the Pac-10-and a potential trip to the Las Vegas Bowl-to a safe berth in the more prestigious Holiday Bowl. Oregon is tied with OSU for second place in the conference behind USC, and by virtue of its win at Reser Stadium, jumps Oregon State into the Holiday.
Barring a huge upset in the Big XII title game, Oregon will likely play No. 20 Missouri in San Diego, Calif., on Dec. 30. The clash of spread offenses should make for fireworks, as the Tigers and Ducks are sixth and eighth in the nation, respectively, in total yards this season.
Arizona
Barring a slip-up at home against rival Arizona State this weekend, the Wildcats will finish fifth in the Pac-10 and likely find themselves in the Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl with the Emerald Bowl opting to deal for Cal.
As a result, Arizona will probably end up facing the highest-ranked opponent of any Pac-10 bowl team except for USC. The Vegas Bowl traditionally gets first choice of teams in the Mountain West Conference, unless an MWC team qualifies for a BCS bowl. With undefeated No. 6 Utah projected to go to the Sugar Bowl, that leaves one-loss TCU-currently No. 11 in the BCS-as the Mountain West's likely representative and the Wildcats' probable opponent in Vegas on Dec. 20.
Arizona State
A disappointing year in the valley of the sun comes down to one final shot at redemption.
To become bowl eligible, Arizona State has to go into enemy territory and take down Arizona. Truth be told, the Sun Devils shouldn't be expected to tame the Wildcats.
Sure, Arizona State has won three straight games, but those wins have come over three of the worst teams in the Pac-10. Not to mention, last week, they relied on Kevin Craft's four turnovers, converting them into 28 points. Meanwhile, Rudy Carpenter's offense couldn't score a single touchdown.
Expect the desert sun to set on the Sun Devils-they likely won't be going bowling this year.
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