Victory Gives Kerry Edge in Race, Professors Say

Casting himself as the mature war and political veteran gave Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., the edge in his surprising win over former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean in Monday's Iowa caucuses, UC Berkeley political science professors said yesterday at the Institute of Governmental Studies.

About 50 people crowded into the institute to hear a half-hour analysis of the Iowa caucuses' results from political science professors Henry Brady and Nelson Polsby.

While Kerry's victory instantly propels him to the front of the race for the Democratic nomination, Dean's distant third-place showing now gives him only a sliver of a chance at winning the nomination, they said.

"My money would go on Kerry," Brady said. "There is a 60 to 70 percent chance that he will win."

Kerry appealed to voters as the candidate most realistically able to unseat President Bush next November, Polsby and Brady said.

Polsby also said Kerry's campaign is grounded heavily in his experience during the Vietnam War, which attracted voters who wanted a strong alternative to Bush.

"Kerry replaying the veteran stuff was just brilliant," Brady said.

Although the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary election only account for a small portion of the total delegates needed for nomination, a strong early showing could map out the rest of the primaries.

"Iowa and New Hampshire, plus the media spin, structure the race," Polsby said. "The momentum structures the menu. By the time we get to vote in California, it will be a short menu."

Brady said voters will start to gravitate toward Kerry, making it easier for him to attract campaign donations, furthering his early lead.

"People like someone who is on top," Brady said.

Although Dean entered the Iowa caucuses with early polls showing him atop the field, the sampling was unreliable because it did not isolate voting members of the Democratic party, Brady said

But he also said the race is far from over and Dean cannot be counted out yet.

As the candidates gear up for the New Hampshire primary election next week, they will face Gen. Wesley Clark, who chose not to campaign in Iowa.

With his viability on foreign policy issues, Clark has the same appeal as Kerry and could his biggest competitor, Polsby said.

Brady speculated that Clark could eke out a victory over both Kerry and Dean in New Hampshire.

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