Professor Warns of Global Warming

With the aid of a new supercomputer model, Inez Fung says she can see the future, and according to her study released last week, it isn't pretty.

After decades of collaboration with researchers throughout the country, the director of the Berkeley Atmospheric Sciences Center finally saw the fruits of her labor: a glimpse of what the Earth might be like in the 21st century if current levels of fossil fuel production continue unabated-hotter, drier and teeming with carbon.

"Basically, there will be less carbon coming in and more coming out," said Fung, a professor of earth and planetary science and environmental science and policy management, attributing the Earth's diminished capacity to absorb carbon to "tremendous (global) warming in the last century."

Typically, carbon is cycled through the land, atmosphere and ocean-a process that takes more than 10,000 years and hinges on how much excess carbon is in the atmosphere, Fung said.

Her team discovered that the chain reaction linked to fossil fuel carbon emissions not only contributes to rising temperatures and more severe weather, but inhibits plants' ability to photosynthesize and interferes with carbon leakage in the deep ocean, a process Fung likens to soda losing its fizz.

And this, in turn, accelerates global warming, she said.

In the last century, the earth has witnessed a half degree Celsius rise in temperature. Although it may seem relatively insignificant, this increase has far-reaching effects, she said.

"We're seeing the very rapid melting of glaciers, changes in habitats of birds and plants," Fung said.

And she cautioned the consequences do not stop there: "It's not like we're having a slow creep of a half degree and we shouldn't worry about it-the extremes are going to become more extreme."

Fung's calculations, a result of incorporating the carbon cycle model into a standard climate model, fall on the more conservative end of 10 similar predictions made worldwide, she said.

"Our findings are suggestive rather than conclusive as we're really guessing about how plants would behave in a climate we've never encountered before," she said.

But Fung said she doubted her results would receive national attention, despite the fact that the United States contributes to a quarter of the world's greenhouse gases.

As part of an 11-member National Academy of Sciences committee appointed by President Bush in 2001 to examine global warming, Fung said she witnessed firsthand the environment's dismissal by national leaders.

Considering Bush's plan to increase fossil fuel emissions until 2012, officials from the nonpartisan National Environmental Trust agreed that reports like Fung's are unlikely to change the current attitude of policy-makers.

The inactivity of the administration comes "at the expense of the country," said Debbie Reed, the organization's legislative director. "It wouldn't surprise me if the administration would choose to ignore this new evidence."

Rather than looking to national leaders, Fung expects California, a state known for its environmental sensitivities, to lead the nation.

"The country has a lot of smart people and that's what the governor has recognized," she said. "Dealing with global warming can be a win-win situation for both the environment and the economy. It's not a trade-off."

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